By: Nguyen Minh Bao, Senior Researcher, Institute of Energy, MOIT
Climate change caused by “greenhouse effects” leading to rise in ambient temperature, precipitation amounts, change in pattern of extreme weather events such as storm and flood in many regions as well as sea level rise will affect to country’s economic production and livelihood, especially to natural environment, water resource, agricultural production, public health and infrastructure… including power sector.
That’s why “Study and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Power Production and Use in Viet Nam”, undertaken by Institute of Energy is one of major studies of Ministry of Industry and Trade under the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change of Viet Nam.
This study fcused n evaluatin f impacts f climate change n prductin, transmissin and use f electricity fr husehld cling and used Viet Nam Climate Change and Sea-level Rise Scenaris, Master Plan f Pwer Develpment VII and case studies as bases fr evaluating and quantifying the impacts f climate change cmpared t base-line scenari (with assumptin f n climate change). In this study, bttm-up apprach methd was used with the help f LEAP (Lng-range Energy Alternatives Planning system) mdel, which was develped fr Viet Nam t analyze and evaluate csts and benefits f different alternative plicy scenaris n bth demand side and supply side t respnd t the climate change.
The study’s results shwed that the impacts f climate change will cause the additinal increase f primary energy demand arund 391.7 thusand tns f il equivalent, accunting fr 0.17% f ttal primary energy demand by 2030. Hwever, if lks at the whle perid frm 2010 t 2030, the ttal cumulative additinal increase f primary energy demand will be significant with 2.75 millin tns f il equivalent, that is equivalent t 843 millin US$ and cumulative additinal C2eq emissins will be 7.9 millin tne. Amng the studied areas, the demand fr husehld cling takes the dminant share f 70.7% f ttal primary energy demand and the remaining are hydrpwer plants (16.5%), thermal pwer plants (11.4%) and pwer transmissin (1.3%).
Based n abve results, the study als determine and prpse the adaptatin and mitigatin measures respnding t the climate change fr pwer sectr, including the detail measures n plicy, management and technlgy.
